I am keen to oppose Frankel in the clash of the two titans – Frankel and Canford Cliffs – for the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood tomorrow (Wednesday, July 27, 2011). Frankel is likely to start a falsely short price in the bookies betting due to his loyal army of fans who believe him to be the reincarnation of Pegasus. However I think there are a few chinks in his credentials.
His form is arguably tailing off. His devastating 2000 Guineas romp was followed in his next run by a diminishing three-quarters-of-a-length victory over Zoffany. The latter is a horse who Canford Cliffs would start a heavy odds-on favourite in anyone’s betting to beat by over a length.
Tomorrow’s intriguing race is a small field with no pace guaranteed – unless Frankel does what he did in the Guineas and tries to blitz ’em from the front. This tactic, while undoubtedly best for Frankel is also best for his main rival Canford Cliffs. Richard Hughes loves to sit and pounce on Canford Cliffs. Frankel wont be able to burn off this speedster the way he bossed them in the Guineas. Canford Cliffs has sprint form to boast aplenty prior to his development into the best miler in the world today.
If Frankel fails to go from the front then the race will become a muddle. Frankel can’t win in that circumstance either. Canford will have the better finishing speed off a slow pace. A race run at an early crawl will even let in the supposed outsiders. Yet Rajsaman is absolutely no mug and the rag of this race, Rio De La Plata, is a triple Group 1 winner.
One last little negative for Frankel is that his jockey Tom Queally is not so accomplished on the big stage as Canford Cliffs’ Richard Hughes. Both have their critics, but I’d be with Hughes’s tactical nous every time. I would not back Frankel if you gave me a fist full of free bets.
So whatever way you look at it Frankel has a fight on his hands, despite being an unappetising odds-on in the Sussex Stakes betting. The only way Frankel can win is if a sub-par Canford Cliffs appears on the day. Even then the two no-hopers have . . . erm . . . hope.