Our Strictly Come Dancing Elimination betting tips have been correct for the past two weeks and we aim to make it a hat trick.
In this Strictly semi-final each celebrity will perform two different dances. They not only have to cram two entirely different routines into their brains but will need physical stamina to get through two performances.
Last week, Westlife’s Nicky Byrne left the show as we predicted. When it became clear that he was up against the all round performer, Denise Van Outen, in the dance off, the writing was on the wall well before the music even started.
Nicky’s American smooth and samba to Troublemaker spelt not so much trouble as total disaster for him. Craig Revel Horwood criticised his lack of bounce action in the samba and his posture problems in the American smooth. He also said that he thought he would be seeing the routine again very soon and scored him a controversially low five. Nicky’s total score of 27 left him at the bottom of the leader board.
Denise survived her first experience of the dance off and is biggest odds of 9/1 (with Ladbrokes) to leave this week. Her jive and quick step was a much more polished dance fusion performance. Her jive was described as superb by Craig. Unfortunately she managed to put her foot in it mid routine. She got her heel caught in her skirt to be more precise. As a seasoned stage performer, she recovered incredibly well from the costume drama, freeing her foot without losing her dance rhythm. Only when she held up her damaged skirt afterwards was the nature of the problem apparent. She was scored a total of 35 points, leaving her in fourth place for the second time in two weeks.
I’m not sure why she is still the second favourite to win Strictly. Yes, she has been at the top of the leader board six times but she obviously cannot rely on the same volume of public support enjoyed by some of her rivals.
On Saturday Denise will be dancing a rumba and a tango. She has no qualms about exuding sexual attraction (she is from Essex after all) so we can expect a suitably steamy rumba. Ian Waite praised her ‘fantastic (body) lines’ on It Takes Two on Wednesday and thought it could be one of her best dances so far. Her tango promenade position still needed perfecting but it was only mid-week.
Denise spent more time training than any other celebrity early in the week and we can expect her commitment to continue. She will be aiming for the top of the leader board, especially now she knows that her appeal with the public is limited. We can expect two dazzling performances.
Girls Aloud singer, Kimberley Walsh, is best-priced at 11/2 (Stan James) to get the boot before the final. She was the sensation of Dance Fusion, scoring a perfect 40 for her cha cha cha and tango combination. Len even stood up and applauded her. Bruno Tonioli described her routine as ‘the dance of the season’. He was getting more than a little over excited at the time and seemed delighted to be able to award his third ten of the evening. It was Craig’s first – he smiled a bit. The moment he managed to raise his ten paddle aloft, it had to be a full house.
Her professional partner, Pasha Kovalev, produced a stunning routine with more switches in dance style than any other couple. Len loved the choreography. Kimberley finally exceeded her standard (for the past month) score of 34 in style.
She will be dancing an American smooth and a charleston. We can expect two great routines and they are both crowd pleasing dances. If she had not found herself in the dance off in week six, she would be an absolute certainty for the final.
Olympic gymnast Louis Smith (28/1 with Stan James & Coral to go this week) is nailed on for the final. The benefits of his acting lesson a fortnight ago were still apparent when he managed not just the moves but also the mood for his rumba and tango combination. He may have the personality of a pancake but he was convincing enough to earn a standing ovation and a ten from Bruno.
Darcey Bussell said that his arms ‘were delicious’ while Craig moaned that his thumb was up during the tango. Louis’ performance earned him a score of 37 points and third place on the leader board. It was his first nine from Craig and the first ever ten for a male celebrity dancing the rumba. Not a bad effort.
Louis will be tackling the jive and the foxtrot on Saturday. His foxtrot was looking impressive on Wednesday. His jive, which they had only just started rehearsing, looked a little flat. Now Louis has learnt the art of ‘performance’ he looks a worthy favourite to win the competition for which he is best-priced at 8/11 – see odds here.
Actress Dani Harmer is the 3/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral or Blue Square) second favourite to fall at this week’s semi final hurdle. Her quickstep and Charleston combination was a winner with the judges and the crowd. She got a ‘standing ovulation’ as her partner Vincent describes them from the audience and tens from both Darcey and Bruno.
She scored 38 points and finished in second place for the sixth consecutive week. More importantly, she has never found herself in the dance off. Her down to earth, honest approach has earned her new fans that have never watched children’s television.
The super-smurfs will be dancing the Argentine tango, Vincent’s speciality, and the American smooth this week. Both are public pleasing dances. After achieving her highest score so far, her dance ability is confirmed. She looks a likely finalist.
Fellow actress, the super-sized Lisa Riley is the favourite to flop this week at a biggest price of 4/5 with Betfred or Ladbrokes (and that is likely to shorten). She made some mistakes in her tango/cha cha cha fusion and finished second last with only 30 points.
She is bound to be at the bottom of the leader board after her American smooth and salsa routines. The American smooth should be 40% in hold and there was no evidence of any moves in hold at all in training on Wednesday. I doubt that there will be any spectacular lifts for obvious reasons. Her salsa body rhythm was also a cause for concern for Ian. Stamina could also be a stumbling block for her on Saturday.
This Week’s Strictly Come Dancing Betting Tip Verdict
The lovely Lisa is no longer in the same league as her dance rivals. Her highest score from any judge has been an eight. All her rivals have now scored at least one ten. The only question is whether her so far loyal public will pick up the phone in sufficient numbers to save her from the dance off.
- I think it is unlikely. Lisa Riley has to be our tip for the tenth Strictly Come Dancing elimination at 4/5 with Betfred or Ladbrokes. We advise, if you are betting, that you have a bet sooner rather than later as the odds have contracted already and may well do so again. For the very latest prices use the link below.