Dubai World Cup Tips & Betting Review
Win, lose or bad draw, it has to be Twice Over

Posted on March 25, 2011 by ME

The World’s richest horserace, the £6.4million Dubai World Cup, takes places on Meydan’s Tapeta surface on Saturday (March 26) with Henry Cecil’s Twice Over 3/1 favourite in the betting to land the £3.84million winner’s pot.

Newmarket-based Italian trainer Marco Botti will be praying Gitano Hernando can land the prize for his new owner, the controversial Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov. It will be the colt’s final start for Botti. Apparently sold for a healthy $4million, take the tip from the previous owners and leave this one out of calculations in the Dubai World Cup Betting. He is an admirable and consistent sort and has got an American Grade 1 victory on his CV but he is not within 10lb of genuine Group 1 company in the UK. The 10/1 may be tempting each-way in a race that lacks strength in depth but he will run without my two shillings on him.

Of more interest is Gio Ponti, a true Grade I class performer in the States with form in Dubai. He was a running on fourth in this race last year, beaten just a length and a half by the winner. Gitano Hernando was two places behind. Gio Ponti hails from the American-based yard of Frenchman Christophe Clement. He is a shrewder trainer than some give him credit for. In a land where even the geldings get the balls galloped off them, Clement has a slightly softer, more European style of training. This may account for the fact his horses appear on the racetrack sound year in year out. This longevity is a truly suspicious and strange phenomenon across the pond.

I despise tipping favourites. They are invariable bad value and I like it even less when they are drawn wide. All this applies to TWICE OVER, but at odds of around 11/4 in the Dubai World Cup betting he actually looks good value, such is his superior class.

Twice Over possesses a devastating turn of foot.  Among so much more, he has won an Eclipse and a couple of Champion Stakes on a truly glittering CV. He had the perfect prep race when simply destoying his field in a Group 2 here at Meydan on March 3. Musir and Gitano Hernando were firmly put in their places that day.

Win, lose or get beaten by the draw, he is undoubtedly the best horse in the field by some margin. This race is not a sprint. It is over ten furlongs and Twice Over is not a front runner. So in a perverse sense the stall 12 draw may be to our advantage if he goes off at marginally inflated betting odds as everyone blindly concentrates on the sole negative. Anything over 2/1 about Twice Over is worth a bet.

Such is the utter mutual contempt between Dubai’s ruling Maktoum family and the Coolmore / Ballydoyle mafia, that Aidan O’Brien does not send his horses to the Arab state. Well not until now. Much as the Irish mob hate the Arabs, they love money more. There is only so long that you can sit in Ireland salivating and resisting the lure of all those dirhams. So enter their gladiator Cape Blanco. I could not put anyone off betting on this son of Galileo. The Irish Derby winner was simply devastating in the Irish Champion Stakes. Maybe even Twice Over would have struggled to match such a performance on the day.

I don’t think it is a hinderance that Jamie Spencer is on board Cape Blanco, but he has a poor record riding for Ballydoyle (remember that season to forget in 2004) and so oftens leaves his challenge a bit too late. However good they are, an injudicious ride can always get them beat. Ask Greville Starkey.

Drawn in stall four, Cape Blanco has a nice berth but he has no form on an artificial surface and that is reason enough to bypass him as a Dubai World Cup betting pick on this occasion. So I will stick with the consistent turbo-boost of Twice Over. Expect him to be delivered with a perfectly-timed challenge under Tom Queally, who has proved himself on the world stage and is a reliable pilot under pressure.

Bet with these: Online Bookies

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Scoop 6 betting pool starts again but bonus still available

Posted on March 18, 2011 by ME

The Scoop 6 was won last week, which is not good as the pool now starts from scratch. However if you do win the Scoop 6 this week then there will be a big bonus up for grabs the following week – so long as last week’s Scoop 6 winner fails to pick the bonus race winner this week.

Does that make any sense? Well, yes. But maybe not particularly well articulated. If you need a recap on how Scoop 6 betting works take a look at this link: Scoop 6.

Anyway we will have a small tilt at it once again:

1.55 Uttoxeter: A grotty little handicap hurdle with woeful prizemoney and I tend to look at trainers in this sort of low-grade affair. I don’t like Jim Old. Sure he wins his races, but not many of them given the ammo he gets and really he is no Paul Nicholls. Come to think of it he is also no Suzy Smith, for the latter is in amazing form. So put in her Beau Lake (5) to land a treble. The other to go with is Lesanda (9) for top Flat trainer Richard Fahey.

2.10 Newcastle: A small field for this disappointing race, but if the prizemoney is going to be so insulting these chasers are better off staying in their boxes. Might just overlook Best Prospect with his tongue tie and cheekpieces. Instead go with Benny Be Good (3) from the excellent Keith Reveley yard and Linda Russell’s Culcabock (4).

2.25 Uttoxeter: Topweight Reindeer Dippin (1) is on an upward curve for Donald McCain, so close a couple of times this week at Cheltenham. Pavillon Bleu (8) was a little unlucky not to get closer after stumbling last time.

3.0 Uttoxeter: The Midlands National is an intriguing affair but I am going to go with class in this handicap. After all the bottom nine are out of the handicap, ie: are all carrying more than the handicapper thinks they should. We can rule them out, which reduces it to a nine-horse race. I am going with Synchronised (1), who will be fancied in the betting but will surely run a huge race in soft conditions that suit. The other I like, even though his recent form is not that great, is Paul Nicholls’ sole representative Tricky Trickster (2). It looks like this race has been the target for some time. Expect an improved showing.

3.20 Newcastle: This looks very tight between some pretty one-paced horses. Charlie Bucket (5) and Night In Milan (6) are the two against the field. Both have been running more consistently than most of the opposition.

3.35 Uttoxeter: There are two with the improving pofiles here. Stoney’s Treasure (7) from Alan King’s top yard, hacked up last time and the handicapper may not have got hold of him yet. Cottage Acre (5) is another lightly-raced improver over fences. Last time out was a mighty impressive debut over the bigger obstacles. As he has point-to-point back form, there is no need to worry about his lack of jumping experience in this final betting heat of the Scoop 6.

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We tip Champion Hurdle & Gold Cup win double at SP betting odds of 17/1

Posted on March 18, 2011 by ME

While boasting does not sit happily with this site, it is necessary to point out our successes in the betting jungle. As you can read in the forthright and confident tipping pieces below, with crystal ball like analysis, we tipped the winners of both the Champion Hurdle (Hurricane Fly at SP of 11/4) and the Gold Cup (Long Run at SP of 7/2) for a 17/1 double at Starting Price.

Obviously you will have got even better betting odds if you backed each horse at the point at which we first tipped them. Keep reading the tipping and betting articles we write here. They may not come along every day, but consideration and patience is the key to defeating the bookmakers’ odds.

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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2011 Betting Tips

Posted on March 15, 2011 by ME

Every dog has his day and there look to be several in the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting. Looking through the list of betting odds on this Blue Riband of jumps racing, it is hard to see which horse can win. It is easy to identify those that will not.

Imperial Commander was a minor surprise last year, when Denman and Kauto Star both failed. It was refreshing after all the tedious two-horse war nonsense and hype to see those two horses surpassed. One of racing’s many roles is to benefit the bookies and remind us nothing can ever be taken for granted, and when you do, well . . . you will be reminded. The pantomime that surrounded last year’s event was as infantile as it was ignorant. Maybe it reflects the quality of what can only be euphemistically described as the toy department of reporting, namely sports journalism. Journalism is too big a word.

Anyway, ME digress, the point of this post is to find the winner of the Gold Cup 2011. It can’t be the favourite Imperial Commander. He does not possess the quality to win one Gold Cup, let alone two. The fact he did was merely good fortune.

Kauto Star and Denman are on the downgrade. The latter has had a secret wind operation, which rules him out for ME. The former can not be backed with any confidence after his dismal third to Long Run when a 4/7 shot in the King George. He is bound to be a false price because of his historic achievements and his blind legion of supporters. They followed him off a cliff at Kempton and are bound to do so again. No wonder William Hill Bookmaker boasted profits of £277million in 2010. Yet prizemoney is at an all-time low, but that is another story, so back to the point. Trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson stand tall as the best in the business. Nicholls two charges, Kauto Star and Denman, warrant respect for that fact alone.

Diamond Harry has now been ruled out by his excellent trainer, Nick Williams. Tidal Bay has a back problem so can’t jump steeplechase fences properly. That’s one for the RSPCA. Will his trainer ever learn, and anyway what is Howard Johnson still doing with his licence after other alleged misdemeanours? It is a credit to this poor horse that he can really get into his stride late on in a race, perhaps once the adrenalin has dulled the pain.

Time to be a bit more positive. One that has entered the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting picture quite late is a very interesting Irish challenger. He has pedigree connections in trainer Willie Mullins and owner JP McManus. Can the billionaire, former bookie and current money trader McManus win the Gold Cup just a season after landing the Grand National? Well, he must have a big chance. Nobody could scoff at an each-way tickle on Kempes at a current best price of 12/1 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting. In a race packed full of horses whose best days are behind them, this horse is seriously on the upgrade and that is very important to the profile of a Gold Cup winner. Kempes’ latest victory in the Grade 1 Irish Hennessy was his best. Detractors may state that he wont get that testing ground at Cheltenham but the trainer is adamant he is better on a sound surface. If so, then he could be lifting the laurels at Cheltenham but there is still one horse I prefer ahead of him.

So who wins the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2011?

The answer is so blindingly obvious. Of course I am talking about the only horse on the upgrade, the horse who won the King George and then saw the form franked massively when the distant runner-up and stablemate Riverside Theatre subsequently won the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. It is the horse with a rider who is amateur in name only and the ignorant detractors are slowly being silenced. Some sad muckers were even shouting “get Barry on board” as he went out to win at Kempton. Long Run’s jockey is educated and intelligent with a great tactical brain. How is that a disadvantage against Irish kids who never went to school? Only in racing. I am talking of the horse from the Nicky Henderson yard, a stable that can do no wrong. In the short run it has to be LONG RUN. So damn obvious, but so damn tempting each-way at 5/1. You have to wonder if it’s a misprint.

Check out: Cheltenham Gold Cup betting and Cheltenham Gold Cup betting.

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Champion Hurdle 2011 Betting Tips and Review

Posted on March 13, 2011 by ME

Champion Hurdle Betting

Nicky Henderson has not had a great time of it with drugs recently. His latest faux pas sees Champion Hurdle betting favourite Binocular miss the big race at the Festival on Tuesday because he would otherwise have tested positive for medication given to relieve an allergy. JP McManus must truly be the racehorse owner from heaven not to punish his trainer for that lack of judgment. Nevertheless, Henderson can console himself with his medical mismanagement as Binocular would not have retained his crown whatever jungle juice was pumped into his veins. The Champion Hurdle is a much better race this year and if Khyber Kim makes the first two again I will buy a hat and eat it.

Menorah is lightly-raced, progressive and has never been out of the first two. His form figures at Cheltenham read 111 and given this is a unique track, that course specialist tag is noteworthy. Philip Hobbs has campaigned him with the Champion Hurdle in mind. He also has the best jumps jockey in the plate, Richard Johnson. He is very hard to pass over.

Peddlers Cross, from the excellent Donald McCain yard, can not be dismissed in the betting either. It is rare that sons of “great” trainers are better than their fathers. Obviously David Pipe is streets ahead of father Martin and now Donald has proved himself the superior of Ginger. Jockey Jason Maguire needed legal representation to ensure he would be allowed to ride Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle. Who could resent him victory? Interestingly, Peddlers Cross is undefeated in his lifetime, including victory in the 2m5f Grade 1 Neptune Novices Hurdle on this track. If there is a chink then it could be the shorter trip and speed test for the son of Oscar who started life winning a point-to-point.

I have a sneaking each-way fancy for Donald McCain’s other runner, the high class flat horse Overturn. At around 40/1 he is seriously over-priced. His odds should be nearer 16/1. The fast ground will play to his strengths. He makes strong each-way appeal.

The one who will carry my money to win the contest has to be Hurricane Fly. Sure the son of Montjeu does not boast course form, but then he has never run at Cheltenham so that may be part of the problem. What he does boast is nine victories from his last eleven races including his last four, all Grade 1 hurdles. But it is not the form book that makes the biggest appeal. What impresses most about this horse is his turn of foot and the way he travels. Hurricane Fly oozes class and speed. And before you ask, yes he has done it on fast ground too. The formidable Irish team of trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Ruby Walsh mean there is serious pedigree in Hurricane Fly’s corner. Grab your Cheltenham Champion Hurdle betting wad and look no further.

Champion Hurdle Betting

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Scoop 6 betting, £500k up for grabs this week

Posted on March 4, 2011 by ME

I have to admit it, we failed to land the Scoop 6 bet last week, despite a couple of good-priced winners.  We did not even get a sniff of the place dividend, so it is just as well nobody reads this betting column. Anyway, that’s the bad news.

The good news is everyone else failed too, so we have another chance to scoop both their cash and ours tomorrow (Saturday). The pool has grown to around half a million pounds. That takes into account the win pool and the bonus pool.

I am feeling optimistic this week. I mean how hard can it be to pick six winners in a row? The Scoop 6 this week involves three races from dank Doncaster and three from an electrifying meeting at Newbury.

I will be updating this post with my selections, but first here are the races involved:

leg 1; 1.55 Newbury: What a nasty, evil handicap to start with. This leg is designed to ensure there is another rollover next week. My tentative two are the blinkered first time VAGRANT EMPEROR (6) for the excellent Emma Lavelle and Alan King’s CREDIT CRUNCHED (13).

leg 2; 2.10 Doncaster: Quite a few recent winners in this but they all seem to have been hammered by the handicapper for their respective successes. I think DOCTOR FOXTROT (11) looks interesting from a yard in form. One concern would be the horse’s slight lack of consistency. The other, even less reliable, selection is MOGHAAYER (8). From all-conquering Nicky Henderson’s yard, he has run two stinkers latest but has strong claims on previous form. I dont think this trainer would run the horse just for the sake of it. He is better than that. Or is he?

leg 3; 2.25 Newbury: Some old codgers in this veterans’ race who still retain significant ability. THE SAWYER (2) is brave and solid, while CORNISH SETT (6) is at last showing some of the sparkle of his youth.

leg 4: 3.0 Newbury: It is another hard-to-figure handicap. I fancy the class and the connections of NICHE MARKET (1). While many will claim this trip is too short for BIG FELLA THANKS (3), but if they go a bit too quick it could fall into his lap as he stays on strongly late. You know the owner needs the (loadsa) money.

leg 5: 3.15 Doncaster: MINELLA FOUR STAR (10) does not want for stamina and showed his wellbeing with a good run last time. MEANUS DANDY (5) will be fit for this and has the scope to show improvement, though he may not need to improve to take this.

leg 6; 3.35 Newbury: OK, if we have got this far then we deserve to scoop the lot. Winning the lottery would have been easier. However there is no let-up. This is far too competitive for a final leg. I feel like playing safe, but that is not an option. Give SIRE COLLONGES (6) another chance to show his talent this side of the channel. He was highly tried last time, so Nicholls must have seen a reason for that at home. In-form PATEESE (12) is a more solid second selection.

That is two selections a leg, like last week. At £2 a leg and 64 legs that is a total bill for the Scoop 6 bet of £128. It’s a small price to pay for a half million pound return.

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Scoop 6 betting to reach £400k this Saturday. Win it with us.

Posted on February 25, 2011 by ME

The Scoop 6 betting pool has been growing and should surpass a tasty £400k this Saturday (Feb 26). Why not have a go at landing the pool. For what it is worth here are my Scoop 6 selections.

If you are unsure of what exactly the Scoop 6 bet is, then I will not reinvent the racehorse, I will just direct you to these two informative links: Scoop 6 Explained; Totesport Scoop6.

The way I like to think of the Scoop 6 bet is as a placepot where you only need a horse to place in each of the six races. Why? Because a placepot is achievable and the Scoop 6 does pay a place dividend. So that is my target. However, in the back of my mind I am hoping for the impossible, that we get a winning betting line, scoop the lot and retire to Skegness.

You do not need to include a load of outsiders to ensure scooping the pool on your own. Just one unlikely winner can wipe 98% of tickets out of the Scoop 6.

With that in mind, here are the six races that make up the Scoop 6 this week with my selections and reasoning. This is where my money is going:

Leg 1, 1.55 Kempton: A tough opener, so I am going to play relatively safe and go for the top trainer’s two representatives. They are the last-time scorer Tonic Mellysse (2) and well-bred Zarkandar (10), who has good form on the Flat in France.

Leg 2, 2.10 Lingfield: You can’t rule any of these out in a tight handicap sprint, but this is the leg that will wipe most of the other tickets out of the pool if we hit the target. We know Chjimes (4) is in form and, if they go too fast as they may, it could fall for hold-up horse Nubar Boy (11).

Leg 3, 2.15 Newcastle: Another nightmare. Stick with horses and stables in form. That rules in: Reindeer Dippin (3) and Dontpaytheferryman (5).

Leg 4, 3.00 Kempton: I have a major soft spot for the course specialist Nacarat (1). Maybe it’s mad off topweight but I can’t leave him out. I still think his general profile is that of an improver. Fistral Beach (10) is the other more predictable selection.

Leg 5, 3.15 Newcastle: Unlike all the other legs, not much strength in depth here. Belon Gale (2) and Minella Boys (5) in a weak line-up for the Eider Chase.

Leg 6, 3.35 Kempton: Toubab (2) and Empire Levant (6) are conservative selections in the trappy last leg. If we have had all the winners to this point, we can lay both these horses on Betfair Betting Exchange to guarantee a profit.

That’s two selections in each of the six legs. That totals @ £2 a leg (the official stake) a bet of £128 for the 64 lines we are placing.

Remember, if one of your selections is a non-runner then you are on the favourite. If there are joint-favourites then you are on the one with the lowest racecard number.

So where to place the Scoop 6 bet? Bet365 Bookies and Totesport Bookies are the best places.

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