The biggest race of the day tomorrow (Saturday, July 30, 2011) is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (3.10pm Goodwood) for fillies and mares. Some people might say a six furlong handicap, cavalry charge is the main event, but unless you love betting on re-runs of the charge of the light brigade then we will give the Stewards Cup a miss. It is just a bookies benefit.
Now the classy pair of Midday and Snow Fairy dominate the front of the betting market in the Nassau, a place I have been to recently. Like the race, the location is usually pretty hot (especially around Midday). Enough already. On back form Midday and Snow Fairy have every right to be all the rage, after all the former has almost made this race her own and is now on a hat-trick in the event. However I fancy opposing them both.
Midday ran a poor race when slaughtered six lengths by Misty For Me last time. That is not Midday’s form and she needs to bounce back from that disappointment. Similarly Snow Fairy ran a lifeless race in the Eclipse. It looked like she was not right behind in the paddock before that run, but what do we know. Surely Ed Dunlop would not run the filly if she was wrong behind, would he? He would know if she was unsound wouldn’t he? Either way Snow Fairy needs to put that lacklustre display in the past if she is to figure in today’s Nassau Stakes. If there was a hint of lameness behind then this race comes too soon and she has no chance today.
So if we are going to oppose the two ‘good things’ in the betting, the two that take out most of the market, then what can beat them?
Crystal Capella is improving rapidly now and the Cape Cross filly scored by a devastating eight lengths in a Group 2 on her latest start. Sure, this is a step up in class but she has earned it, must have every chance and will attract support in the betting.
The other who looks far too long in the betting at around 20/1 is the admirable Barefoot Lady. She was not beaten far in the 1000 Guineas and her third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot was arguably her best run yet. She was beaten less than three lengths that day. There is no doubt Barefoot Lady can make herself felt in this company. She is yet another great advert for her trainer Richard Fahey.
I would be a little suprised if Principal Role can win, but if we oppose the front two, I am happy to have her batting for us along with my better fancied friends.
So the choice is yours: either oppose the front two on the betting exchanges or back Barefoot Lady at odds that represent tremendous value. Go on, push the boat out, do both.