It is the top horserace in Europe on Sunday (October 2, 2011), the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at France’s premier racecourse, Longchamp, in the heart of the Bois de Boulogne in gay Paris. We identify the best bets for the big race and recommend a couple of horses at BIG Arc betting odds to bet on each-way.
Intriguingly, there are a couple that catch the eye at long odds in the Arc betting. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has a huge chance of lifting the prize with So You Think. The former Aussie champion has shown a clean pair of heels to most, but not all, of his European adversaries since the switch to the Northern Hemisphere. The son of High Chaparral is the undisputed number one contender in Ballydoyle’s armoury but at 4/1 he hardly rates the bet of the decade. As is often the case, the yard’s other runners have their own serious chances of winning. As is often the case, expect big runs from the stable’s outsiders.
If So You Think was not in the field then Treasure Beach and St Nicholas Abbey would be a lot shorter in the betting, and not just because of the absence of a random 4/1 shot. It is not often you can identify value, but when O’Brien has a fancied one in a race it is well worth taking a long lingering gander at his other hopefuls. Their betting odds can reflect each-way value.
Treasure Beach is a 40/1 no-hoper if you believe the odds. Why? Is he useless? Has he lost a leg? It must be down to his poor form: last time he cosily won a Grade 1 race in America. Previously he had been second in the English Derby and won the Irish Derby. He also beat the subsequent King George winner, Nathaniel, in his Derby Trial at Chester. Nathaniel, a likely non-runner in the Arc, had been quoted at 7/1 for Longchamp. Nathaniel’s conqueror, Treasure Beach, is at 40/1. Go figure. Actually don’t ‘go figure’, go straight to these Arc Odds and bet on Treasure Beach each-way.
While you’re at it do the same on his hopeless stablemate St Nicholas Abbey. No wonder he is at a general 33/1. He only beat the moderate multiple Group 1 scorer Midday in the Coronation Cup. He has only won both races this season when there was an absence of the word ‘soft’ in the going description. Sarcasm aside, he is patently at his best on fast ground. For those of you who have been locked in a basement for the last week, living a real life version of Stephen King’s fictional book and film ‘Misery’, I can assure you there will be an absence of ‘soft’ at Longchamp come Sunday. In fact the M25 is likely to have more give underfoot. Misery was slow moving. I don’t expect St Nicholas Abbey to be.
If you want one at shorter odds because you are alleric to value outsiders, then Workforce, last year’s record-breaking Epsom Derby winner (on firm going) and the 2010 Arc winner looks very good value at around 8/1 in the Arc betting. If you are looking to join a new bookie and claim some free bets then Workforce could be the one for those complementary wagers. Trainer Michael Stoute and jockey Ryan Moore have a great chance of doubling up and you know the colt will love this fast ground.