Arc de Triomphe Betting Tips: Cash in with two value outsiders

Posted on September 28, 2011 by ME

It is the top horserace in Europe on Sunday (October 2, 2011), the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at France’s premier racecourse, Longchamp, in the heart of the Bois de Boulogne in gay Paris. We identify the best bets for the big race and recommend a couple of horses at BIG Arc betting odds to bet on each-way.

Intriguingly, there are a couple that catch the eye at long odds in the Arc betting. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has a huge chance of lifting the prize with So You Think. The former Aussie champion has shown a clean pair of heels to most, but not all, of his European adversaries since the switch to the Northern Hemisphere. The son of High Chaparral is the undisputed number one contender in Ballydoyle’s armoury but at 4/1 he hardly rates the bet of the decade. As is often the case, the yard’s other runners have their own serious chances of winning. As is often the case, expect big runs from the stable’s outsiders.

If So You Think was not in the field then Treasure Beach and St Nicholas Abbey would be a lot shorter in the betting, and not just because of the absence of a random 4/1 shot. It is not often you can identify value, but when O’Brien has a fancied one in a race it is well worth taking a long lingering gander at his other hopefuls. Their betting odds can reflect each-way value.

Treasure Beach is a 40/1 no-hoper if you believe the odds. Why? Is he useless? Has he lost a leg? It must be down to his poor form: last time he cosily won a Grade 1 race in America. Previously he had been second in the English Derby and won the Irish Derby. He also beat the subsequent King George winner, Nathaniel, in his Derby Trial at Chester. Nathaniel, a likely non-runner in the Arc, had been quoted at 7/1 for Longchamp. Nathaniel’s conqueror, Treasure Beach, is at 40/1. Go figure. Actually don’t ‘go figure’, go straight to these Arc Odds and bet on Treasure Beach each-way.

While you’re at it do the same on his hopeless stablemate St Nicholas Abbey. No wonder he is at a general 33/1. He only beat the moderate multiple Group 1 scorer Midday in the Coronation Cup. He has only won both races this season when there was an absence of the word ‘soft’ in the going description. Sarcasm aside, he is patently at his best on fast ground. For those of you who have been locked in a basement for the last week, living a real life version of Stephen King’s fictional book and film ‘Misery’, I can assure you there will be an absence of ‘soft’ at Longchamp come Sunday. In fact the M25 is likely to have more give underfoot. Misery was slow moving. I don’t expect St Nicholas Abbey to be.

If you want one at shorter odds because you are alleric to value outsiders, then Workforce, last year’s record-breaking Epsom Derby winner (on firm going) and the 2010 Arc winner looks very good value at around 8/1 in the Arc betting. Trainer Michael Stoute and jockey Ryan Moore have a great chance of doubling up and you know the colt will love this fast ground.

Arc Betting Odds

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Barefoot value in Nassau betting as hotpots worth opposing

Posted on July 29, 2011 by ME

The biggest race of the day tomorrow (Saturday, July 30, 2011) is the Group 1 Nassau Stakes (3.10pm Goodwood) for fillies and mares. Some people might say a six furlong handicap, cavalry charge is the main event, but unless you love betting on re-runs of the charge of the light brigade then we will give the Stewards Cup a miss. It is just a bookies benefit.

Now the classy pair of Midday and Snow Fairy dominate the front of the betting market in the Nassau, a place I have been to recently. Like the race, the location is usually pretty hot (especially around Midday). Enough already. On back form Midday and Snow Fairy have every right to be all the rage, after all the former has almost made this race her own and is now on a hat-trick in the event. However I fancy opposing them both.

Midday ran a poor race when slaughtered six lengths by Misty For Me last time. That is not Midday’s form and she needs to bounce back from that disappointment. Similarly Snow Fairy ran a lifeless race in the Eclipse. It looked like she was not right behind in the paddock before that run, but what do we know. Surely Ed Dunlop would not run the filly if she was wrong behind, would he? He would know if she was unsound wouldn’t he? Either way Snow Fairy needs to put that lacklustre display in the past if she is to figure in today’s Nassau Stakes. If there was a hint of lameness behind then this race comes too soon and she has no chance today.

So if we are going to oppose the two ‘good things’ in the betting, the two that take out most of the market, then what can beat them?

Crystal Capella is improving rapidly now and the Cape Cross filly scored by a devastating eight lengths in a Group 2 on her latest start. Sure, this is a step up in class but she has earned it, must have every chance and will attract support in the betting.

The other who looks far too long in the betting at around 20/1 is the admirable Barefoot Lady. She was not beaten far in the 1000 Guineas and her third in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot was arguably her best run yet. She was beaten less than three lengths that day. There is no doubt Barefoot Lady can make herself felt in this company. She is yet another great advert for her trainer Richard Fahey.

I would be a little suprised if Principal Role can win, but if we oppose the front two, I am happy to have her batting for us along with my better fancied friends.

So the choice is yours: either oppose the front two on the betting exchanges or back Barefoot Lady at odds that represent tremendous value. Go on, push the boat out, do both.

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To be frank, it can’t be Frankel

Posted on July 26, 2011 by ME

I am keen to oppose Frankel in the clash of the two titans – Frankel and Canford Cliffs - for the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood tomorrow (Wednesday, July 27, 2011). Frankel is likely to start a falsely short price in the bookies betting due to his loyal army of fans who believe him to be the reincarnation of Pegasus. However I think there are a few chinks in his credentials.

His form is arguably tailing off. His devastating 2000 Guineas romp was followed in his next run by a diminishing three-quarters-of-a-length victory over Zoffany. The latter is a horse who Canford Cliffs would start a heavy odds-on favourite in anyone’s betting to beat by over a length.

Tomorrow’s intriguing race is a small field with no pace guaranteed – unless Frankel does what he did in the Guineas and tries to blitz ‘em from the front. This tactic, while undoubtedly best for Frankel is also best for his main rival Canford Cliffs. Richard Hughes loves to sit and pounce on Canford Cliffs. Frankel wont be able to burn off this speedster the way he bossed them in the Guineas. Canford Cliffs has sprint form to boast aplenty prior to his development into the best miler in the world today.

If Frankel fails to go from the front then the race will become a muddle. Frankel can’t win in that circumstance either. Canford will have the better finishing speed off a slow pace. A race run at an early crawl will even let in the supposed outsiders. Yet Rajsaman is absolutely no mug and the rag of this race, Rio De La Plata, is a triple Group 1 winner.

One last little negative for Frankel is that his jockey Tom Queally is not so accomplished on the big stage as Canford Cliffs’ Richard Hughes. Both have their critics, but I’d be with Hughes’s tactical nous every time. I would not back Frankel if you gave me a fist full of free bets.

So whatever way you look at it Frankel has a fight on his hands, despite being an unappetising odds-on in the Sussex Stakes betting. The only way Frankel can win is if a sub-par Canford Cliffs appears on the day. Even then the two no-hopers have . . . erm . . . hope.

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Belmont Stakes Tip (Belmont, New York)

Posted on June 8, 2011 by ME

I have a strong fancy for MASTER OF HOUNDS in the Belmont Stakes at New York on Saturday.

This race is a re-run of the Kentucky Derby as the first seven home in that race make up the field of twelve at the New York track on Saturday night (11.35pm UK time).

Aidan O’Brien’s Master Of Hounds completely blew the start at Churchill Downs and ran on best of all into an eye-catching fifth. Hopefully a trainer of Aidan O’Brien’s stature will have done the necessary stalls work in the five weeks since that race to ensure we don’t see a repeat performance. I counted Master Of Hounds as desperately unlucky not to have been bustling up the winner Animal Kingdom that day. It was soul-destroying to see how well he overcame his adversity only to get fifth place.

This race is a mile and a half as opposed to the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The extra two furlongs of this Belmont Stakes will count in Master Of Hounds’ favour and very much against the Americans, whose horses always struggle to get a mile and a half. It is a trip the yanks think is a marathon. For them, the universe ends at ten furlongs. Beyond is uncharted territory.

Another advantage Master Of Hounds has over his rivals is that he skipped the Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of the American Triple Crown, to concentrate on this final leg. He will come into the race fresher and better prepared than most of the weary warriors.

In addition, there is a field of just 12 now as opposed to the 19 rivals he was up against in the Derby. This smaller field will help ensure a hold-up horse starts his charge from nearer to the pace and makes it less likely he runs into traffic.

Master Of Hounds features as a gilt-edged each-way bet. The UK bookies currently offer 6/1 about Master Of Hounds, but it may be best to hold fire as his odds in America could drift to a longer price come race time. If you want to hedge your bets then have half your chosen stake at 6/1 and wait with the other half.

Aidan O’Brien’s colt may sneak under the betting radar as the Americans pour their money onto Shackleford and Animal Kingdom, winners of the first two legs. Punting allegances will have been forged and I don’t think the yanks will identify as solidly with johnny foreigner Master Of Hounds as they should. Let’s hope they bet with their hearts not their heads.

I’m not the only one tipping the Ballydoyle jetsetter . . . the crooning chubster Elvis was surely thinking of this race alone when he howled ‘there aint nothing like a Hound dog.’ I am counting on it being his Nostradamus moment.

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Epsom Derby Tips, Preview & Betting
(Saturday June 4, 2011)

Posted on June 4, 2011 by ME

Epsom Derby Betting

The winner of the Dante Stakes at York on May 12 now takes up the much-worn mantle of Epsom Derby favourite and can be backed at around 9/4 in the Derby betting odds. That offers small reward. The horse in question, Carlton House, may actually go off even shorter for no other reason than he is owned by an old aged pensioner called The Queen. But is Carlton House ’throne’ in? Even in these hard economic times her loyal subjects will no doubt doff their caps and blindly lump their dole money (ed: income support?) onto the wrinkly granny’s nag come raceday. Let them eat cake.

Cutting through the tabloid fluff, there is no doubt that trainer Michael Stoute’s Carlton House did produce a good performance. The inexperienced colt came from off a very slow pace to win cosily without midget-on-board Ryan Moore ever making contact with the persuader. The horse could do no more given the circumstances.

Or could he? As the jockey said, the race was a mess. So should we get so carried away with the form? Probably not. Carlton House’s narrow defeat of Seville appears at face value to be the strongest of some rather motley clues. It may be foolish to dismiss the runner-up Seville but it may also be folly to believe blindly that the Dante result holds the key to the Derby. The main problem for me is the close proximity of the rag Pisco Sour in third place. If the form was of Derby winning status then the front two should have drawn well clear of that moderate yardstick however the race was run, but they didn’t.

Another issue is that Carlton’s House’s sire Street Cry does not tend to get winners over 1m4f. Carlton House is bred ideally for 1m2f, the trip of the Dante, but not the mile and a half of the Derby. If breeding does kick in expect him to fade, not accelerate, in the final furlong.

The Derby would not be The Derby without a last minute scare for the hot favourite. Well that cliche is reality as this week Carlton House knocked a leg. We are not amused and neither are the punters. His odds have drifted as a result, but this setback could be very significant. Connections state the horse had already done his last serious bit of work (10 days before raceday) but this latest blow could get Carlton House beaten, irrespective of all the other negatives we have cited here. He may not even make it to the day. We know of one old queen with her fingers crossed.

To cap it all he has been given the outside berth in stall 13. That aint good. All things considered, at the odds, I could not recommend anyone other than the most suicidal of blind patriots to back the favourite.

The second favourite in the Derby betting odds is the French raider Pour Moi. Trained by legendary Andre Fabre and owned by the Coolmore gang, the well bred son of Montjeu won a Group 2 in France easily on May 7 and is being aimed specifically at Epsom. The form of Pour Moi’s run may be hard to assess but with great breeding and connections who know the price of garlic, he has to be respected. Fabre has won the French Champion Trainers Title no less than twenty two times. Pour Moi owes his place in the Derby more to the weakness of Aidan O’Brien’s team than anything else. He is the Coolmore flagbearer by proxy, drafted in from across the channel.

The most eye-catching Derby trial to come out of Frankel’s runaway 2000 Guineas victory was Native Khan. He ran on nicely in third behind the winner. The 25/1 Derby quote looked far too generous and now 11/1 is the best available in the Derby betting. Native Khan looks the current value for the Epsom showpiece each-way. The colt will love this rattling fast ground, something his quietly-confident trainer Ed Dunlop has always emphasised. Native Khan was just behind Dubawi Gold at Newmarket and that horse has added some strength to the form, when an unlucky second in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Native Khan has the top big-race jockey Johnny Murtagh, who has already landed the 2011 Oaks over course and distance. Murtagh, who parted company with Ballydoyle at the end of last season, would always be a preferable jockey booking to Kieren Fallon, linked to Native Khan for so long. But more of that saga later.

You can be sure that Aidan O’Brien will have a say about who wins this Derby. He is responsible for Dante second Seville. He also has the fancied Recital, who failed to impress when winning the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown on May 8.

If you look up the form book it will tell you it was a cosy win. Whoever said the form book never lies must have been a pork pie merchant himself. In this case the form book not only lies, it laughs in your face. Recital hung left all the way up the straight and had an alarmingly high head carriage. He did not have much left at the death from his unfancied (25/1) stablemate Memphis Tennessee. The extreme camber and undulations of Epsom are not going to suit Recital. This 750,000 euro son of Montjeu can be overlooked. Of more interest, and maybe more progressive is the runner-up, Memphis Tennessee having only his third run and first of the season.

As a footnote, Kieren Fallon has been stopped from riding Recital by the High Court because he had contracted to ride Native Khan instead, but then bailed on connections. He must now watch the race from the weighing room. Fallon may not be missing much on Recital and Pat Smullen is his last-minute substitute. The big mistake may have been to abandon Native Khan in the first place.

An interesting one at a bigger price is the sure-fire stayer, Masked Marvel, trained by John Gosden. He won a minor listed race at Goodwood in great style and is sure to stay the trip. This well-bred colt catches the eye at around 28/1 in the Epsom Derby betting.

Ocean War is the Arab representative and runs under their Godolphin banner. With Frankie Dettori on board this one is sure to attract some housewives’ and once-a-year punters’ each-way money. So expect him to shorten in the Derby betting. The horse can not be dismissed as he has a similar profile to Masked Marvel, unexposed and potentially improving. Godolphin have been remarkable unsuccessful in recent years given the billions of Dubai dollars they have been chucking at this game. However, throw enough mud and something has to stick. Maybe it will be Ocean War, who cosily landed a trifling listed race at Newmarket in late April. He is one of the few colts certain to stay the Derby trip.

Our Derby selection:

Back NATIVE KHAN each-way, but we have been tipping him since he was 25/1 in the Epsom Derby betting and the best price now is 11/1. The morals of this story (spot the odd one out): read this betting column every day, the early bird catches the worm, too many cooks spoil the broth. Don’t be surprised by a big run from Masked Marvel.

Epsom Derby Betting

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1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas Betting, Tips & Review

Posted on April 29, 2011 by ME

2000 Guineas Betting
1000 Guineas Betting

Frankel is the undisputed favourite in the 2000 Guineas betting (3.10 Newmarket, Saturday). He is a short-priced odds-on shot at around 1/2 and some people believe him to be unbeatable. Be that as it may, it is my duty to point out why he is worth opposing.

Why ‘duty’? Because if you are one of those misguided souls who lump on odds-on shots then i need to save you from yourself. Backing odds-on shots is the fast route to the workhouse. This is a time honoured fact. However recently, a noisy professional punter claimed he had got so rich by betting on heavy odds-on shots. Because this obese cockney windbag was shouting from the rootops, some poor fellows believed his ‘pony and trap’. The chubby chap is now rather skint, having been forced to sell all those slow horses he had bought during his winning streak. Lesson 1: Backing odds-on shots on a regular basis will send you skint. Lesson 2: See lesson 1.

Now don’t come whining to me when Frankel duly justifies the hype and wins by half the length of the track in this 2000 Guineas . . . because I will still be right.

Ok, so if you are going to swerve the obvious nailed on certainty of the decade, here are some potential chinks in his armour:

1) He was champion two-year-old. Raincheck. He is now a three-year-old. It is a chasm similar to a ‘pre’ and a ‘post’ pubescent boy. Horses may have caught up with him. Horses may have improved past him. He may not be as good as he was in relation to his peer group.

History is littered with crumpled betting slips with the names of champion two-year-olds that were hopeless at three. Even those of short memory will recall St Nicholas Abbey, all of 12 months ago.

Going back further other “absolute certainties” to have failed, and this is far from a definitive list, include: Celtic Swing (1994), Tromos (1979), Try My Best (1978), The Minstrel (1977), Apalache (1974 at 4/9), Thatch (1973), Ribofilio (1969), Crocket (1963).

This is why the bookmakers are listed on the London Stock Exchange and their market cap is in the billions. This is why our fat friend lost his money and sold his slow horses.

2) Hype. Yes, Frankel has done the business (last year), but the hype is ridiculous. Similar to the Royal Wedding. Yes, a nice wedding but it didn’t justify the hype.

Incidentally, the bride knows a thing or too about reducing the odds. She was going to Edinburgh and then swapped to St Andrews – and his very course – when the Prince was a confirmed runner there. No wonder she and her doppelganger sibling are known as the Wisteria Sisters (wisteria is an attractive plant with a voracious ability to climb). Crafty Kate landed a well executed coup. Barney Curley could learn a thing or two. If you can find out what the oldest Wisteria Sister is backing at Newmarket then lump on, otherwise you are stuck with me.

3) Point 3 leads on from point 2. Hype breeds bad value. Frankel may win but he is bad value at 1/2.

4) There are other horses in the race, from top yards. Aidan O’Brien’s Roderic O’Connor won a French Group 1 last year. True, he was behind Frankel before that but he is no mug and we are a season on. Pathfork is unbeaten. He beat Casamento in the Group 1 National Stakes last season. Casamento then won the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy. All Group 1 winners.

5) Frankel has had a run this year. He won a poor trial. Some would say he could do no more than win and he will improve. I agree . . . to a degree. The runner-up was a 25/1 shot rated a lowly 89. Yes Frankel put good daylight between himself and the poor hairy beast, but he looked unconvincing.

6) Probably the most solid reason to oppose him. Frankie Dettori thinks Frankel is a certainty but despite that the diminutive Italian tips Saamidd and rides Casamento. He hasn’t even had that many falls on his head.

So if I am going to take on Frankel, who with? Well I want a solid each-way bet in a race like this and the bookies are paying 1/4 odds 1,2,3 for a place. This is not a handicap so they would usually pay 1/5th the odds. They are never generous, it is a minor concession. We aren’t going to thank them but it could be worse.

I want a horse who has shown good form this year in a strong Guineas trial from a trainer who is beginning to show he is pretty damn decent and certainly better than his dad. He needs to be lanky. Look no further than Ed Dunlop and his flying grey NATIVE KHAN.

Native Khan won the Craven Stakes cosily. You know he is in good heart. I cant quite understand why he is around 16/1. That looks a tasty each-way price to me.

I may have a quiet 50p each-way on outsider Broox. His former English-based Irish trainer now resides in sunny France and will have him ridden to nick a place if he can. Jockey William Buick is not a muppet. At 100/1 I just have to throw some loose change at him. He ought to be a 33/1 shot.

That’s the 2000 Guineas dealt with, so who will win an open-looking 1000 Guineas (3.15pm; Sunday)?

I fancy another over-priced trial winner in the form of the supplemented BAREFOOT LADY from the ascendent yard of Richard Fahey. She ran on well over 7 furlongs to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes. Again that is solid form from this season, which is so crucial at this stage of the campaign. The 25/1 looks too big.

2000 Guineas Betting
1000 Guineas Betting

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Grand National 2011 Betting Guide, Preview & Tips
(race run April 9, 2011)

Posted on March 25, 2011 by ME

See the latest Grand National Betting

We have done the hard bit, finding the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle double. Now for the easy bit, scouring the Grand National betting market and picking the eminently findable Aintree victor.

To some people this is a stampede straight into the slings and arrows of cruel misfortune not to mention monumental pile ups. Apparently no one with a brain ever stakes the entire mortgage payment on the Grand National, but hey you only live once.

Prices are inevitably distorted by a tsunami of random money placed by ‘once a year only’ punters who can at best be described as irrational. They often favour the only horses they have heard of – the ones that have run in the race before – and it is hard to see any of the past winners or many of the seasoned National stalwarts taking the top prize this year unless Aintree becomes a bottomless mire.

What A Friend is bound to be poor value by the day of the race simply because of his celebrity connections and his name. Despite being owned by that famous Scottish curmudgeon, Alex Ferguson, there are some positives about the horse.  Ferguson did own another good horse, Rock of Gibraltar, even if the exact nature of that ownership was disputed. So the old man with a hairdryer where his mouth should be, is not necessarily a jinx.

But, wait a minute, will he actually be that short a price on the day? I mean how many local Liverpool racegoers will back Sir Alex to win anything? The horse may be lucky to survive the paddock given how deep in enemy territory they will be.

What A Friend did run a very credible Grand National trial when a better-than-expected fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Grittar filled the same spot before landing his Grand National. So it was a run that understandably saw What A Friend’s Grand National betting odds contract. On paper, he does look a blot on the handicap as the gelding runs off a handicap mark of 156 at Aintree, yet his Gold Cup form has earned him a mark of 171 for future handicaps. That means What A Friend is carrying over a stone less weight in the National than he ought to be. The admirable Daryl Jacob, who rode the horse at Cheltenham, keeps the ride. Don’t be put off by this booking, Jacob has course form. He was fourth in the race four years ago.

It is surely an inevitability of future history that his trainer, Paul Nicholls, will win a Grand National and why not with this classy individual. He did train an Aintree Grand National winner once upon a time, anyone remember Silver Birch? Unfortunately Nicholls had outed the poor nag for a measly 20,000gns before the gelding landed the race in 2007 for talented Irish trainer Gordon Elliott.

Another Paul Nicholls’ hopeful is Niche Market, who pulled up last year but has been prepared for the race specifically this time around. Niche Market’s owner has been shouting his mouth off that his charge is the number one Grand National hope in the top trainer’s yard. He is one of the favourites in the betting, likes good ground and his chance is obvious.

Jockey Ruby Walsh’s mount in the race is always worth a look and not just because he has the choice of some of the best equine ammunition. Not only has he won the race twice but, most significantly, he also managed to get third on My Will in 2009. The following year My Will not only fell at the fourth under the perfectly competent Nick Scholfield but fell yet again, unpiloted. History suggests that the apparently unmoving Walsh, unlike many over active jump jockeys, must subtly do something that actually helps rather than hinders a horse over the National fences.

Walsh seems likely to partner Willie Mullins’ The Midnight Club, who figures very prominently in the Grand National betting. He has only ventured across from the Emerald Isle on a couple of occasions  and has done the majority of his racing on soft ground, winning his most recent start, a Grade 2 chase at Fairyhouse  on heavy. In his 17 starts over obstacles he has only fallen once – in his second run over regulation fences – and has never caused an unseat. There are never any guarantees when a horse encounters the National fences for the first time but his record suggests that he stands every chance of staying upright and staying on to the line. This ten year old has to be one for the shortlist, especially with Walsh aboard.

Don’t Push It, the mount that propelled AP McCoy to victory in the 2010 Grand National and 2011 Sports Personality of the Year, has gone up a lot in the weights.  Now an eleven year old, the J P McManus horse wasn’t impressive in his final prep run over hurdles at Cheltenham. Yes, he finished tenth rather than pulling up, as he had in the same race a year ago, but there has been little cause for optimism from his outings earlier in the season, even allowing for the fact that they were all over hurdles. In 2010 he had been placed in three of his four runs prior to the National – the three over fences – and didn’t start as joint favourite with the bookies purely because McCoy was on board.  Dont Push It lacks the class to become a dual-winner. However the record of horses that have previously performed well on the course is good.

Comply or Die should get round but is unlikely to sprout wings as a twelve year old, even though he carries just 10st 8lb this year. Hello Bud is more likely to make his jockey, Sam Twiston-Davies, happy than his followers in the Grand National betting. The oh so talented Tidal Bay is often labelled with such nomenclatures as “unreliable,” “inconsistent,” or even by the wholly ignorant, ”dog.” These insults should be aimed at his trainer. Poor, abused Tidal Bay is in pain and connections should do something about it. He is so obviously uncomfortable over fences of any height that his very entry in the race should attract the attention of the animal rights brigade. It is also high time that former Welsh National winner, Dream Alliance, returned to the allotment of his youth.

McCoy certainly didn’t employ the same strategic approach when riding another JP McManus horse, Synchronised, in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter. This horse was subjected to the McCoy drive for well over a mile. Having started the 9/2 favourite in the race, he lost second place to Ballyfitz close to the finish. It was a particularly gruelling four mile contest on good to soft. Only four of the seventeen starters crossed the finishing line. Having depleted Synchronised’s reserves so thoroughly, AP dismounted immediately after the finish. Reports after the race claimed that the horse was extremely tired rather than damaged. Whatever the truth is, I would not touch Synchronised in the Grand National betting with a barge pole.

At seven years old Quinz is another horse with realistic Grand National hopes despite his relative youth. His impressive victory in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in February suggests that he has stamina beyond his years. A French bred like Long Run, he has only fallen once in 14 starts over obstacles.

At nine years old Backstage, the French bred trained by Gordon Elliott is one of the more interesting runners.  Elliott was responsible for Silver Birch’s aforementioned 2007 win and Backstage was going well in last year’s National when he unseated his rider at the 20th, hampered by a loose horse.  He has also only fallen once and has to be a live contender, having won impressively in a couple of Irish point to points. He should also not be troubled by deeper going – what else is there in Ireland?

BIG FELLA THANKS, moved from Paul Nicholls’ yard to Ferdy Murphy and looks a serious prospect. The horse has crucial course form as he was sixth in the 2009 Grand National with Christian Williams and fourth in 2010 under Barry Geraghty. On that evidence he looks a banker for a place but with a campaign geared to the race, this might be the year he strikes.

Now a nine year old, Big Fella Thanks should have reached his prime for this race and his preparation has gone smoothly. He stayed on really well over an inadequate 2m4f at Newbury last time. That was the perfect prep race for the one that counts.

Conclusion: our Grand National betting advice

So to conclude, BIG FELLA THANKS is the tip in the Grand National betting. Back him each-way and the odds are you will enjoy a really good run for your money. BIG FELLA THANKS was sold by former-owner and general loudmouth Harry Findlay just two weeks before the National. We know fat Harry needs the money but the neurotic, pro-punting cockney might just miss out on what should have been the greatest day of his larger-than-life. Then he will really feel the world is out to get him.

See the latest Grand National Betting

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Scoop 6 betting, small pool big bonus this week

Posted on March 25, 2011 by ME

The Scoop 6 betting pool and bonus was not won last week so whoever wins the Scoop 6 this week gets a crack at a bonus of around £400,000 even if the pool will only be around £140,000+ this week.

We were just one place away from landing the place dividend last week. If there had not been a non-runner in a 5-horse race making it a 4-horse race we would have got the place dividend.

I am not doing any reasoning due to time pressures this week, but these are my selections:

Leg 1: 2.0 Lingfield: Silaah (7) and Anne Of Kiev (10).

Leg 2: 2.15 Newbury: Kerada (1) and Easter Legend (2).

Leg 3: 2.35 Lingfield: Bathwick Bear (1) and Dubawi Gold (3).

Leg 4: 2.50 Newbury: Alverstone (7) and Emmaslegend (10).

Leg 5: 3.10 Lingfield: Cockney Class (2) and Dansili Dancer (3).

Leg 6: 3.25 Newbury: Theatre Dance (6) and Scots Dragoon (9).

You know the rest. Good luck!

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Dubai World Cup Tips & Betting Review
Win, lose or bad draw, it has to be Twice Over

Posted on March 25, 2011 by ME

The World’s richest horserace, the £6.4million Dubai World Cup, takes places on Meydan’s Tapeta surface on Saturday (March 26) with Henry Cecil’s Twice Over 3/1 favourite in the betting to land the £3.84million winner’s pot.

Newmarket-based Italian trainer Marco Botti will be praying Gitano Hernando can land the prize for his new owner, the controversial Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov. It will be the colt’s final start for Botti. Apparently sold for a healthy $4million, take the tip from the previous owners and leave this one out of calculations. He is an admirable and consistent sort and has got an American Grade 1 victory on his CV but he is not within 10lb of genuine Group 1 company in the UK. The 10/1 may be tempting each-way in a race that lacks strength in depth but he will run without my two shillings on him.

Of more interest is Gio Ponti, a true Grade I class performer in the States with form in Dubai. He was a running on fourth in this race last year, beaten just a length and a half by the winner. Gitano Hernando was two places behind. Gio Ponti hails from the American-based yard of Frenchman Christophe Clement. He is a shrewder trainer than some give him credit for. In a land where even the geldings get the balls galloped off them, Clement has a slightly softer, more European style of training. This may account for the fact his horses appear on the racetrack sound year in year out. This longevity is a truly suspicious and strange phenomenon across the pond.

I despise tipping favourites. They are invariable bad value and I like it even less when they are drawn wide. All this applies to TWICE OVER, but at odds of around 11/4 in the Dubai World Cup betting he actually looks good value, such is his superior class.

Twice Over possesses a devastating turn of foot.  Among so much more, he has won an Eclipse and a couple of Champion Stakes on a truly glittering CV. He had the perfect prep race when simply destoying his field in a Group 2 here at Meydan on March 3. Musir and Gitano Hernando were firmly put in their places that day.

Win, lose or get beaten by the draw, he is undoubtedly the best horse in the field by some margin. This race is not a sprint. It is over ten furlongs and Twice Over is not a front runner. So in a perverse sense the stall 12 draw may be to our advantage if he goes off at marginally inflated betting odds as everyone blindly concentrates on the sole negative. Anything over 2/1 about Twice Over is worth a bet.

Such is the utter mutual contempt between Dubai’s ruling Maktoum family and the Coolmore / Ballydoyle mafia, that Aidan O’Brien does not send his horses to the Arab state. Well not until now. Much as the Irish mob hate the Arabs, they love money more. There is only so long that you can sit in Ireland salivating and resisting the lure of all those dirhams. So enter their gladiator Cape Blanco. I could not put anyone off betting on this son of Galileo. The Irish Derby winner was simply devastating in the Irish Champion Stakes. Maybe even Twice Over would have struggled to match such a performance on the day.

I don’t think it is a hinderance that Jamie Spencer is on board Cape Blanco, but he has a poor record riding for Ballydoyle (remember that season to forget in 2004) and so oftens leaves his challenge a bit too late. However good they are, an injudicious ride can always get them beat. Ask Greville Starkey.

Drawn in stall four, Cape Blanco has a nice berth but he has no form on an artificial surface and that is reason enough to bypass him as a Dubai World Cup betting pick on this occasion. So I will stick with the consistent turbo-boost of Twice Over. Expect him to be delivered with a perfectly-timed challenge under Tom Queally, who has proved himself on the world stage and is a reliable pilot under pressure.

Bet with these: Online Bookies

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Scoop 6 betting pool starts again but bonus still available

Posted on March 18, 2011 by ME

The Scoop 6 was won last week, which is not good as the pool now starts from scratch. However if you do win the Scoop 6 this week then there will be a big bonus up for grabs the following week – so long as last week’s Scoop 6 winner fails to pick the bonus race winner this week.

Does that make any sense? Well, yes. But maybe not particularly well articulated. If you need a recap on how Scoop 6 betting works take a look at this link: Scoop 6.

Anyway we will have a small tilt at it once again:

1.55 Uttoxeter: A grotty little handicap hurdle with woeful prizemoney and I tend to look at trainers in this sort of low-grade affair. I don’t like Jim Old. Sure he wins his races, but not many of them given the ammo he gets and really he is no Paul Nicholls. Come to think of it he is also no Suzy Smith, for the latter is in amazing form. So put in her Beau Lake (5) to land a treble. The other to go with is Lesanda (9) for top Flat trainer Richard Fahey.

2.10 Newcastle: A small field for this disappointing race, but if the prizemoney is going to be so insulting these chasers are better off staying in their boxes. Might just overlook Best Prospect with his tongue tie and cheekpieces. Instead go with Benny Be Good (3) from the excellent Keith Reveley yard and Linda Russell’s Culcabock (4).

2.25 Uttoxeter: Topweight Reindeer Dippin (1) is on an upward curve for Donald McCain, so close a couple of times this week at Cheltenham. Pavillon Bleu (8) was a little unlucky not to get closer after stumbling last time.

3.0 Uttoxeter: The Midlands National is an intriguing affair but I am going to go with class in this handicap. After all the bottom nine are out of the handicap, ie: are all carrying more than the handicapper thinks they should. We can rule them out, which reduces it to a nine-horse race. I am going with Synchronised (1), who will be fancied in the betting but will surely run a huge race in soft conditions that suit. The other I like, even though his recent form is not that great, is Paul Nicholls’ sole representative Tricky Trickster (2). It looks like this race has been the target for some time. Expect an improved showing.

3.20 Newcastle: This looks very tight between some pretty one-paced horses. Charlie Bucket (5) and Night In Milan (6) are the two against the field. Both have been running more consistently than most of the opposition.

3.35 Uttoxeter: There are two with the improving pofiles here. Stoney’s Treasure (7) from Alan King’s top yard, hacked up last time and the handicapper may not have got hold of him yet. Cottage Acre (5) is another lightly-raced improver over fences. Last time out was a mighty impressive debut over the bigger obstacles. As he has point-to-point back form, there is no need to worry about his lack of jumping experience in this final betting heat of the Scoop 6.

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